Food Shortages, Local Economies, and Trains

In case you haven't heard, there are food shortages all over the world. The most dire effects of this year's rice and wheat shortages have barely begun to make their mark in the US, but (as you'd expect) have been wreaking havock in smaller nations. In poor countries food riots are already underway. But even in wealthy ones, trouble has begun.

In Japan, there's no butter or rice, and when they're available, they're terribly expensive. In New York City and the West Coast of America, major retailers have begun to run out of rice, oil and flour, and they have put restrictions on how much flour and oil each customer can purchase. And yes, people all over the planet are hoarding. Most major rice exporters such as Vietnam have STOPPED EXPORTING the grain in order to secure their domestic supplies. Consumers who can afford it are buying up grains and oil in vast amounts in preparation for the onslaught of shortages.

But rather than speculate about what's to come, let me just brief you on what's already here and why, in case you're wondering:

The umbrella issue is oil. We have reached peak oil. I'm not being alarmist here--the CEO of Shell and other experts both liberal- and conservative-minded agree. Google it and you'll find tons of info. Demand has outstripped supply--that's peak oil. We're in it. The price of all petroleum products WILL continue to rise (with maybe a lull here or there as little oil fields are discovered and used up). Petroleum products include pesticides, fertilizers, gasoline, heating oil, diesel, plastics, foams, vinyl, and jet fuel--bye bye Miss American Flights. Shipping costs have risen and this affects EVERYTHING we consume in America. Why? "Made in China" is printed on most every non-edible object in our lives. And we want oranges in places where oranges don't grow, so those have to be shipped. And we want spinach in New York City when it's not spinach season, so we get it shipped from warmer climates. And we want to add fertilizer and pesticides to our crops...oil oil oil.

Now let's look at the more specific problems that are exacerbated by the rising costs of shipping and petroleum products:

There's one big issue going on with Rice: Water. Too many droughts in too many countries. Rice needs water, ergo--no rice crops. And so we've got shortages and whatever rice there IS now costs a bundle. It's only gonna get worse. India, to use another example, is ONLY exporting Basmati (already a premium rice with a premium price, and set to get more expensive as supplies dwindle). There have been rice riots all over Asia.

The wheat problem has to do with two major issues: droughts and Ethanol. Since oil has peaked, we're beginning to use ethanol. Ethanol production has already diverted wheat to the making of fuel for our cars. That's wheat that won't be made into bread or other food. Do you wanna drive your hybrid to the mall, or to eat a bagel for breakfast? Ethanol production is causing major problems. The loss of wheat crops to drought, plus the diversion of wheat grains to making ethanol, plus extra shipping costs is making baked goods expensive. And yes, major wheat exporting countries have stopped selling their supplies so they can have enough grain to feed their OWN citizens.

And what about cooking oil? Blame ethanol (all that corn is now going into the tiny fleet of hybrids in the West). There's less corn available for making oil, so, oil becomes expensive. Just like gold. Gold is expensive because it's rare. Make cooking oil rare and it becomes expensive.

And what about butter in Japan? Why is there no butter in Japan? Most butter comes from cow's milk. Most cows eat feed. Feed is made of corn and wheat (and pumped full of vitamins and hormones that are byproducts of the petroleum industry--see how it's all linked?) Corn and wheat are in short supply and what little there is has become very expensive. So, cows aren't getting enough feed to produce enough milk to make enough butter to supply Japan. Oh, and beef is more expensive now, too.

So what's the solution to all this crazy talk, Alex? Localized economies. You eat what you grow in your own town. When there's no spinach, then you don't eat spinach. In short, we need to learn to live under the motto: you can't always have what you want. We need to invest in local farms (something that's already taking root! yay!), stop investing in Agribusiness alltogether, AND we need to invest in our railways. Bring the railroads back to life so we can ship things across America AND so we can travel without spending a bundle on gasoline or diesel or jet fuel.

Many of our grandparents lived in a time when food was local and railroads were reliable and affordable. They remember. So it's not outside of Americans' reach to make sure Americans have enough to eat in the coming decades of global scarcity. Demand this. It's our land, our country, and it could feed us and support us if we took care of it. Now is a great time to learn to garden, or hell, to buy some land and start up a little organic farm of your own.